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If you’ve followed my WNBA content this season, you’ve probably noticed one thing:
I’ve been betting a lot of three-pointers.
There’s a reason for that.
This has easily been my most profitable WNBA betting strategy of 2026, and it has become the first thing I look at every single slate. Just take a look at some of my most recent wins:
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In this article I want to walk you through exactly how I research these bets and why I believe the three-point market is one of the best edges available right now.
Every Season Has a Different Edge
One of the biggest mistakes sports bettors make is assuming last year’s strategy will continue working forever.
Sportsbooks adjust.
Teams change.
Players take on different roles.
Last season, I thought the First Half Points market offered some incredible opportunities.
This year?
The edge has shifted.
The alternate three-pointers market has become my favorite place to attack.
That doesn’t mean other markets can’t be profitable—it just means this is where I’ve consistently found the most value.
My Research Process
I use Outlier as my primary research tool because it allows me to quickly compare player trends, matchup data, and shot volume.
My filter setup is actually very simple:
Three-Pointers Made market
Sportsbooks I personally use
No aggressive odds filtering (other than removing extremely juiced lines like -1000)
Review both standard and alternate lines
Once the filters are set, I sort players by their full-season performance.
This is where many bettors make a mistake.
They simply bet every player near the top of the list.
I don’t.
Instead, I go player by player and ask one simple question:
Does the data actually support today’s line?
Don’t Only Chase Hit Rates
One of the biggest things I always emphasize is that raw hit rates don’t tell the entire story.
Role and opportunity matters more.
The stat I care about most is:
Three-point attempts per game.
A player can be shooting 45% from three, but if they’re only attempting one shot per game, there’s very little opportunity for them to go over.
On the other hand, someone taking four to six threes every night gives us much more opportunities that they could make 1 or 2. Seems simple, right? It is.
Example: Azurá Stevens Under 1.5 Three-Pointers
One of my favorite unders recently was Azurá Stevens under 1.5 made threes.
Why?
Several reasons lined up:
She hadn’t cleared the number all season.
She averaged only 3.4 three-point attempts per game.
The matchup strongly favored the under.
When I looked at how opposing forwards and centers performed against the Liberty, very few were making multiple threes.
The matchup supported what the season-long numbers were already telling us.
That’s exactly the type of bet I’m looking for.
Example: Sarah Ashlee Barker Over 0.5 Three-Pointers
Overs require a slightly different approach.
Sarah Ashlee Barker has become one of my favorite three-point props this season. I will likely buy her jersey by the end of the year at this rate.
Instead of focusing only on her season averages, I looked at recent opportunity.
Over her recent stretch of games, her three-point attempts had climbed into the four-plus range almost every night.
That tells me her role is growing.
Then I checked the matchup.
Seattle had consistently allowed opposing guards to knock down at least one three-pointer.
When both opportunity and matchup agree, that’s exactly the type of over I want to bet.
Matchups Matter More for Three-Pointers
One thing I’ve learned this season is that not every prop should be handicapped the same way.
For PRA props, I’m usually much more interested in:
Minutes
Usage
Injuries
Role changes
Opportunity
The matchup matters, but it’s often secondary.
Three-point props are different.
Defensive schemes.
Shot profiles.
Position-specific tendencies.
Some teams naturally allow more perimeter shots than others.
Look at this image above. I hammered two guards under 2.5 three pointers made tonight against the Fever because of this. Both won.
Because of that, I place much more emphasis on matchup data when betting three-pointers than I do with traditional PRA markets.
Why I Like Parlays for These Bets
Many of these props carry heavy juice.
Rather than betting several -250 or -300 lines individually, I often combine multiple plays together into parlays when the research supports it.
That doesn’t mean every parlay wins.
Nothing in sports betting does.
But if you consistently find positive expected value and make smart decisions over a large sample, that’s where long-term profitability comes from.
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My Biggest Takeaway
The goal isn’t to blindly follow trends.
The goal is to understand why those trends exist.
Every player I bet goes through the same checklist:
Season-long performance
Three-point attempt volume
Recent role
Matchup against that position
Whether today’s betting line accurately reflects all of that information
Once multiple factors line up, then I’ll consider adding the play to my card.
It’s a simple process, but it’s been one of the most consistent strategies I’ve used all season.
If you’re looking to improve your WNBA betting, I’d encourage you to spend more time studying opportunity and matchup rather than simply looking at hit rates.
And if you don’t want to research yourself and just want my picks, CLICK HERE